It’s a Powder Keg

(December 7th 2023, Montreal)

Last quarter we noted the conflict in the Caucasus region is concerning, as its political impact is larger than its borders. With events in Gaza, it is easy to see there are powder kegs all throughout the world that could draw us in to WWIII.

Israel / Palestine / Lebanon (proxy for Irán)

Since its origin in 1948, Israel was in conflict with local Palestinians as borders were established and neither side recognized the sovereignty of the other. The religious element between Jews and Muslims heightens tension with all neighbouring states, particularly with Hezbollah up north in Lebanon who attacks with support from Irán. Western interests want to develop the Ben-Gurion Canal to compete with the Suez canal, running alongside Gaza and re-distributing globe trade within the region.

Saudi Arabia / Yemen (proxy for Irán)

Saudi Arabia (Sunni) has been bombarding Yemeni’s (Shiite) for years, Iran (Shiite) funds the Houthi rebellion in Yemen. Although the conflict is often unnoticed by Western media, political powers are aware of the highly strategic importance of this geographic region as a chokehold for global marine trade. 70% of all global oil production runs passed Yemen and could be at risk due to a larger scale conflict.

Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea / Republic of Korea

The end of WWII left key regions unresolved between the Eastern Communist and Western Capitalist regimes, and the Korean War in the 1950’s resulted in a standoff that exists today.  The Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) drew a line on the 38’ parallel separating the population of Korea, with the modern-day North under the authoritarian rule of a dictator and the South having become a top 20 performing economy of the world.

One China – China / Taiwan (backed by U.S.)

Taipei (Taiwan) earned a unique Sino identity through Chiang Kai-shek who fought Mao in the late 1940’s Communist Revolution and his side was driven to the island. In the 1970’s the U.S. developed commercial relations and set a military foothold to support the identity of the Taiwanese. Today, the world is dependent on Taiwan’s capabilities for microchip generation.

South China Seas – currently China works to re-draw the ‘9 Line agreement’ that allows for a sea ‘commons’ to be shared by the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and others but this is being challenged every day as China grows stronger. As China builds new islands to take over the trade route, remaining countries rely on the UN to uphold acceptance of the Laws of the Sea.

India / China

China released its ‘New Standard Map’ and India relations were heavily strained, as China extends claim into Southern Tibet, areas surrounding Bhutan and the Maldives. Tensions between the countries have always been fierce, as mountainous regions and specific indigenous populations were left undefined and shared. If China makes declarative statements this will draw reactions from India.

India / Pakistan

These two nuclear powers have been at odds since 1947 when Pakistan was established as a Muslim-state, fully separate from India. The religious tensions between the Pakistani Muslim’s and growing power of Hinduism in India are core to the tension, but disputed territories like Kashmir are heightened when either side tries to stake claim, and notably China also has an interest here.

Russia / Finland and Poland (backed by NATO)

Finland purchased ‘David’s Sling’ anti-ballistic missile defense system from Israel to better manage its borders with Russia. Russia entered Ukraine in 2022 on the pretext of joining NATO, since Finland joined the military union on April 2023, they have identified Russia has been sending undercover militants across their shared border resulting in a closure in November 2023.

As Poland joined NATO in 1999, they removed themselves from Russia’s sphere of influence, and as they share a border with Belarus’ a proxy country to support Russian expansion, the border is highly sensitive for all parties.

Kurds / Turkey

With the fall of the Ottoman Empire in WWI, the West drafted the Treaty of Sevres to grant the Kurdish people a nation state in their geographic home of northwestern Iran, northern Syria, northern Iraq, and southeastern Turkey. 3 years later, Turkey declined the development of Kurdistan, leaving 30-40 million Kurds as a minority amongst the four countries. Today, the Kurdish PKK and Ankara have been in a 40-year battle which has seen 40,000 deaths.

The Sahel

The destabilization in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger has been growing over the last 10 years, with recent military coups ousting French forces and embracing Russia-back Wagner groups. Resulting in conflicts with the Muslims militias of Al Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in Greater Sahara (ISGS) has resulted in thousands dead. As Western powers push agendas and neighbours like Benin, Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria impacted this could grow into something much larger.

Congo (DRC)

The Congolese government has ousted international relations as the elect a new government in December 2023. The country has been in a state of conflict for centuries, with international interest pillaging natural resources and internal civil disputes at the core for aggression.

Due to the Congo’s high concentration of cobalt, copper and zinc many world empires have an interest in ensuring access to these materials.

 Nuclear States throughout the World

• China, France, India, Israel, Iran, Germany, North Korea, Pakistan, United Kingdom, United States, and Russia

• (In Progress) Belarus, Kazakhstan, South Africa, and Ukraine (who previously dissolved arsenal)