A new precedent was set with stay-at-home orders across the globe, later broken by protests against systemic racism and lengthy business closures.

A newer precedent is being establish with martial rules, where civil leaders are meeting with calls for real change.

Globe /

COVID-19 surpasses 10M test-positive cases and 500K deaths, with U.S. and Brazil topping the list. Scientists, Doctors and Politicians struggle to define the narrative leading to questions on the handling, the origin and preventative measure to handle the pandemic. At its height, the U.S. severs ties with the World Health Organization (WHO) and the organizational ties of Dr. Fauci and Bill Gates raise questions if the virus is a man-made biological weapon concocted in a Biosafety Level 4 (BSL4) laboratory.

The Artic hits 100°, a Sahara dust storm ‘Godzilla’ reaches the North America, a ‘once in a century’ Locust swarm destroy crops in East Africa. USS Portland presents the Laser Weapon System Demonstrator (LWSD) by downing an unmanned aircraft, while the U.S. moves 1/3 of troops out of Germany requiring the country to match their North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) funding commitments of 2% of GDP.

North America /

Washington D.C. considered for the 51st State, Canada was not voted into the U.N. Security Council, International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts Mexico to shrink 10.5% this year.

U.S. unemployment peaks at 14.7%. The murder of George Floyd by 4 Minnesota police spark a country-wide Black Lives Matter led protest, the police authorized by Federal government use excessive force to quell revolts, in dissent police-free autonomous zones are created with message to ‘Defund the Police’. Symbolic statues of the confederacy and national icons are toppled in anger; an executive order is issued to protect all statues as Federal property.   

Joe Biden accused of sexual assault by Tara Reade, Donald Trump fires U.S. Prosecutor Geoffrey Berman, while charges upon Michael Flynn are dropped and stage a review of his ‘unmasking’.

Europe /

COVID hit Italy & Spain the hardest at first, and the financial impact will follow. The U.K. took the lead in cases, even infecting PM Boris Johnson (U.K.). Russia is now has the highest case count, while spilling 20K ton of diesel in Arctic, and exposed for incentivizing Taliban with bounties on U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan.

Africa and Middle East /

Grand Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia has Egypt and Sudan concerned about the flow of the Nile, Netanyahu and Gantz form coalition government in Israel, with Gantz leading bi-lateral discussion with Palestine. Lebanon risks destabilization as its currency has lost 78% of value in 9 months; Iranian militias are targeted in Syria with all eyes looking at Israel.

Asia /

China’s ‘one country, two systems’ shows fragility in internal struggle and as U.S revokes special status for trade in Hong Kong, increasing tariffs. The Kearney Reshoring Index notes a 7% drop in Chinese manufacturing exports, focusing attention on Vietnam or Mexico to become the world’s manufacturing powerhouses.  Tensions in Galwan Valley rise as India and China on a border dispute dating from 1962, as India struggles with growing numbers of COVID cases over 500K.

South America /

Iran has begun shipping oil to Venezuela, while U.S. Green Berets botch an assassination attempt of Nicolas Maduro. Brazil’s President Bolsonaro’s political supporters are under Supreme Court led Federal investigations, while Brazil’s COVID-19 cases are in the millions.

Market Finances

Ups, downs and back around

Ø  Business

• Facebook faces boycott of key advertisers due to its inability to prevent the spread of hate speech and disinformation.

• Johnson & Johnson forced to take talc powder off the North American market, but it still sells globally.

• SpaceX holds its first manned mission to the International Space Station, a giant leap for commercialized space flights.

• Lemonade is preparing for IPO release.

• U.S. Senate delist Chinese Companies from exchanges who cannot provide independence from government support.

Ø  Gold – Global instability and bouncing markets drive Gold futures hitting 9 year high at $1,891.80/ou.

Ø  Oil –U.S. Oil sold at negative rates due to issues with storage, despite rebounds, company write-downs are high

Forecast(ing)

When the market has lost all sense

Much like everything else in 2020, the Markets have behaved so erratically that within 4 months we have seen the largest drops and gains in 20 years, and in some cases century-like records are being set.

All traditional investment strategies are gone and an investment model based on volatility is being acted out.

Day trading exploits have opened opportunity for short-term sellers and newly minted home traders on apps like Robinhood, which has resulted in unforeseen behavior. With companies filing for bankruptcy like Hertz and Chesapeake Energy but see high volume trading in just days that massively overshadow their entire activity in 2019. With companies swelling with growth, like Nikola or even Tesla, despite yet proving a business model that can yet turn a profit, there is a sign the markets are off kilter.

There is a likelihood much of the trillion dollar CARES Act funding is being shuffled around the market, to the benefit of large organizations and investment firms like Blackrock, and others in the know.

In older times, the fundamentals of Stock Market investment was to select a strong company, with a good business model and invest to support their growth path.

So how here is a basic method to research and review a prospective companies overall value. 

• Select your publicly traded company and invest some time.

• Review their revenue, profit, assets, liabilities, cash-to-debt ratio, annual income statements, CEO updates and investor conferences calls. 

Income Statement (Example)

Net Revenue = $100 (Earned Fees from Clients)

Operating Expense = $60 (Cost to run business and pay employees)

Operating Income = $40 (Profits)

Net Income = $30 (Profits after taxes)

Basic Earnings / Share = $0.15 (net income/total shares)

Balance Sheets (Example)

Total Assets = $100 (ownership of tangible valuables)

Liabilities = $50 (amount of money that company owes to others)

Ex. Accrued Litigation = $2 (Potential Legal Losses)

Ex. Long-Term Debt = $20 (annualized outstanding debt)

Total Equity = $50 (balance of assets minus liabilities)

Dividend = $0.115 (frequency based shareholder pay-out)

If a company is showing year over year growth on the Net Income and Equity, the company is in a strong position. By reviewing their proposals for future growth and next steps, if this plan resonates with your values of a good business then this would appear solid.

Complete this process for your prospective investment against their key competitors.

If the basic earnings per share, and support dividend are a match to your expected return, then you have found a good investment.

In 1968, Andy Warhol’s prediction that everyone will have their ‘15 minutes of fame’, was intended to point to how fast society was moving and the public’s adoration of fame. Not much has changed, but technology does allow us to move faster and louder, so maybe it is more like 15 seconds.

Media outlets acknowledge our desire for polarized information, and they would rather break stories first rather than being right. The principles of the old guard of print media, to be objective and factual, are now replaced by clickbait.

As consumer’s we spend our days scrolling through mass amounts of information, but lose the time to validate the content we read. With our ability to digest heaps of information, nothing prevents us from burping up an opinion based on half-truths. This is why Twitter battles can be so infuriating, because one person’s alternative facts are often not strong enough to overturn someone else’s inherent bias.

Literate people in society are intelligent enough to form a well-constructed opinion. However, laziness to confirm information can then ultimately lead to misinformed opinions, and social media allows a person to publish this on a mass scale.

If your car is broken, and you don’t have the skills or tools to fix it, you would source a mechanic. Therefore, if you do not have the knowledge to determine a truth or falsity in a scientific, medical, economic or political realm, then you should reference the experts.

If you receive a meme that speaks to you, but don’t know it to be true, then don’t broadcast it on social media. Your opinion matters, your voice has power, and your vote should be informed.

As a movement people can stop a war, or if so inclined, create one.

In 1980, Warhol admitted he never made a statement regarding the 15 Minutes of fame, but acknowledged it was his too own. The statement might be an influence of Pontus Hulten or Nat Finkelstein prior to appearing in Warhol’s 1968 exhibit in Moderna Museet, Sweden.

Sports & Combat

…and the whole crowd went silent

Arenas are empty, stadiums silent, pitches left clean. Sports are essentially in a coma.

The ESPN Docu-series on Michael Jordan ‘The Last Dance’ could not have come at a better time, as fans reflect on simpler days. The only outlet in the last few months being UFC Fights, NASCAR and Wrestlemania, with a few leagues re-opening to with no crowds like the restarting football in Germany mid-May, later followed by the English Premiership mid-June.

 The lull in sporting activity create a glut in sports gambling, which found many migrating to the Robinhood app to invest in the financial markets. Increased mobile activity and monitoring of the market have linked the behaviour new day-traders, outside the professional trader market.

Dave Portnoy of Barstool.com, became the poster child for this new investor demographic. He has taken credit for making large sums in short periods, but does feel as people return to work and sports return and this past time crowd will dwindle. Others however, feel gamblers may always remain with one foot in the financial markets. Only time will tell as sports prepare for a slow and steady return.

Auston Matthews (NHL), Novak Djokivic (ATP), and Kevin Durant (NBA) have all tested positive for the COVID. Each signifying a return to traditional game play is not only dangerous but costly to the game as signature players can be dramatically impacted.

With caution, two Tennis tournaments in Berlin will remain on the docket with a limit to 800 spectators, the NBA will return July 30th with a smaller 8 Team roster all playing at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Florida, and Football (Soccer) in Europe has kicked off with empty stadiums and televised audiences only.

 The rest of the athletics world will take a schedule and planned return, but it will take time.

Mixtape XVII

Dance like everyone is watching

Club from Your Living Room

For many gig workers, performers, artists and DJs when the quarantines took effect in March 2020, work options dried the fuck up. As did places for people to come together and celebrate dance, music and culture. The Toronto Queer community stood up and led the charge with Club Quarantine (Club Q). 4 friends, Andres Sierra, DJ Casey MQ, Brad Allen and Mingus New began hosting a virtual dance party on Zoom for 3 hours every night with a pay-what-you-can PayPal donation model.

Demand was quick. Collaborations with Paper and Diesel brought through guest Charli XCX, Yves Tumor, and Yaeji and set it as the stage for the place to be, when there is nowhere to be. In June, Pride month began, the virtual Club refocused with less frequent shows and efforts to begin support to BLM movement and fundraising.

The model came out of necessity, for those craving community and live music and now other streams are popping up. Resident Advisor started Club Quarantäne, in April, New Yorker’s Eamon Harkin and Justin Carter brought their club set-up Virtually Nowadays, Germany’s ClubCommission set up ‘United We Stream’.

Once our doors re-open, the trend will likely return to Global Radio stations for desktop listeners, but if coordinated properly there is an opportunity to let live shows in different countries broadcast to homes and event halls around the world like pay-per-view events and kick off a new global village club experience.

                                                Top Five

1. JU$T – Run the Jewels ft. Pharrell Williams and Zack de la Rocha (BMG Rights Management)

2. M.O.B. – Brockhampton (Question Everything)

3. Kyoto – Phoebe Bridgers (Dead Oceans)

4. Idontknow – Jamie xx (Young Turks)

5. No Glory in the West – Orville Peck (Columbia)

                                                                                   Playlists

      Unreal Radio VI – Real Lies

      BBC Essentials Mix – Jamie XX

      Don’t Say I Didn’t Ask – Various Artists

Cartoonscape

Science and Fiction.

Tom Gauld recently released his new collection of comics, ‘Department of Mind Blowing Theories’ published by Drawn & Quarterly.

With two jacket reviews locking down his style and relevance.

1. Neil Gaiman “Tom Gauld is always funny, but he’s funny in a way that makes you feel smarter. Which is especially useful when he’s being funny about science”

2. William Gibson “Gauld is my favorite hyper-minimalist brainiac cartoonist”.

If Gary Larson (‘The Far Side’) met Bill Watterson (‘Calvin & Hobbes’) and they ended up having a ‘Junior’-style baby, maybe that child would have been friends with Tom Gauld.