Since Then
Foreign Policy and Foreign Elections Headline
Trump Foreign Policy took full effect in headlines labelled ‘Trade War’, ‘Korean Denuclearization’, ‘Iran JCPOA Nuclear Deal’, ‘Jerusalem Embassy’, and ‘US pulls out of UN Human Rights commission’. With each area in flux, only time will tell the impact of the policies.
Other headlines read, China enhances ‘Skynet’ surveillance platform, concerns with Argentinean Peso, Turkish Lira, Hong Kong Dollar which all search out Chinese support, Canada passes bill C-45 legalizing marijuana, Cape Town is suffers from drought, Nicaragua riots against social security reforms, and Guatemala was hit by a volcanic eruption.
Global elections were held all over the world. Turkey re-establishes Erdogan rule, Cuba elected there 19th president Diaz-Canel, Adbo Benitz is now President of Paraguay, Columbia elects conservative Duque, Ex-President of Brazil, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva defies court order to turn himself in for corruption and Mexico is expected to elect Obrador to fight corruption.
Business
Ø Disney – ups its bid for 20th Century Fox, to 71B USD, to edge out ComCast’s bid
Ø AT&T – have received US Justice Dept.’s blessing for their 85B USD Time/Warner bid.
Ø Sotheby’s – set a record at 157M USD sale of Modigliani’s Nu Couche (sur le cote guache)
Ø Match Group – took a hit in May, when Facebook advised their plans to start a dating app site.
Ø Global Economy - US is still the World’s Largest Economy, but not outpacing the Chinese growth.
Ø Gold – drops 5.8% in Q2 2018, having investors question its “efficacy as a traditional asset haven”
Ø Cannabis Market – Canada’s Bill C-45 has passed the senate amending the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act, ensuring marijuana products can legally be sold in Canada in October 2018.
Ø Oil – With Iran’s oil off market (for some), Saudi Arabia and Russia drive supply decisions to manage pricing and meet demand due to global chain disruptions. In coming years, Bahrain may be world’s largest supplier with a new regional oil field discovery.
Forecast
The Double Down
The Double Down
From a gambling perspective doubling down, a way to split one’s hand and potential increase one’s chance when odds an in the player’s favour. However, as an investing strategy Doubling down or Averaging down is a potential way to mitigate losses, by re-investing in a stock at lowered price with expectations of return gains. It is a model endorsed by Warren Buffet and Marty Whitman, but also ties to their heavy research process in investing.
I thought it would be worthwhile to review past picks that presented as loser’s and determine if this might be a time to re-invest – along with some true wild card bets where a small investment could return to previously performances.
Highly Risky Considerations
Despite the logic “if you like the stock at $40, then you will love it at $20”, this is a process that can easily reflect a gambling on odds, and should always be backed up with research otherwise you could simply be investing in a sinking ship.
Electrovaya
A Canadian Electric-Battery company, with patents on modern technique process for building batteries.
> Consideration $3.00 / Now at $0.24 – a true gamble, Risky.
Blackberry
John Chen remains as CEO for another 5 years, and a recent big deal with Microsoft could dust of some poor performance from this once star.
> Peak $148.00 / Now at $12.68 - will likely never hit old high, but Stable consideration.
Snap
Entered the market with high expectations, but based on the financing mechanism and retention of control, the market was aware this tech stock was not prepared for Wall Street.
> IPO - $19.20 / Now at $13.20 data is useful, youth market is highly volatile and so is management. – a strong brand but, Risky.
Enbridge
This energy company stock took large hits in 2017, but this much need correction could have steered the course
> Peak $64.82 / Now at $47.00 - already on upswing from April low, Good consideration.
Politics & Religion
Privacy on the Net
You may have recently received a whole bunch of opt-in emails from your internet service vendors and social media accounts, advising you of their privacy policy. The reason is tied to a May 25th enforced European law – General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which comes with some pretty hefty fines up to 20M Euro or 4% of worldwide revenue for corporate non-compliance.
Although this is specific to European Citizens, global companies are making sure they are compliant. The law itself requires Service Providers to manage their member’s data with greater security, scrutiny and transparency. The law will ensure employee and member data can request erasure of their data from system and search results, collection of data is limited to necessity-only, members are properly notified of data breaches, clear and opt-in data regulations are presented to members, data shared externally is properly secured, members can request their data profile with your organization within 1 month of the request and free of charge, organizations are required to have Department Protection Officer (DPO) to manage data requirements.
On day one, a cash grab 8B € law suit was filed against Google and Facebook due to non-compliance with the regulation. There is a recent surge in awareness that privacy data is actually valuable and marketable, and governments now want to ensure they are getting their cut on this business. Of recent, the US congress and EU Representatives were not shy to show their ignorance on how the internet and mobile services work, when asking rudimentary questions to Mark Zuckerberg on steps on how to log-in to their own personal accounts, and set their privacy settings.
In short, Privacy Data has now been recognized as the new commodity, and it will be the driving factor for how economies grow and business is structured in the coming years.
Sports & Combat
Surf & Turf
\ Surf
Brazilian Rodrigo Koxa surfed the large recorded wave, at 24.4 M in Nazare Portugal on 11.8.2017, according to World Surf League.
\ Turf
Wimbledon. The oldest, most prestigious, Tennis Tournament was founded in 1877 and has been played on the grass courts off the All England Club in London, England. As a part of the Grand Slam Tennis Tournaments, played in Australia (Plexicushion), France (Clay) and US (Pro DecoTurf). The Wimbledon courts are now 100% perennial ryegrass.
In 1876, Major Walter Clopton Wingfield put together the rules for a game ‘Sphairistike’ which remain fairly similar to today’s rule of play for Tennis.
Despite the tournament being comprised of 5 Main Events (Gentleman Singles, Ladies Singles, Gentleman Doubles, Ladies Doubles, Mixed Doubles) the prestige is left for the Singles Events. The Tournament is single-elimination format, and since 1927, the top 128 highest international seeded players are pitted against one another, highest against lowest, until the final is closed. Since 2002, a more complex formula is used via the ATP Entry System + points for previous grass performance aligns the player over the top 32 seeded ranking.
The event is scheduled for 14 days, traditionally a Monday to Sunday period and up until 2009’s introduction of a retractable roof, the event was at the mercy of the weather and rain could push the final Sunday event into a ‘Manic Monday’ conclusion in which organizers would open up seating to all with inexpensive seating to watch the conclusion.
My experts predict R. Federer will outplay Nadal, Djokovic and Cilic and again take the event, his 9th title for this event and his 21st major. For the women it is likely S. Williams will outdo Halep, Sharapova and Kvitova, to continue a run from previous year’s performances.
Mixtape IX
The Good, The Bad and the Ugly
Bill & Ted making a new movie, ABBA plan to release new music in Dec ‘18.
Kayne is bipolar-racist, Roseanne is an Ambien-racist, Drake is a clown.
Lars Von Trier disgusts Cannes, and bystanders just mobile filmed XXXTentacion’s death in South Miami instead of calling for help.
Quote of the Season
“When you hear about slavery for 400 years ... For 400 years? That sounds like a choice” - Kanye West
Top Five
1. Goromphmca - Dur Dur Band (Elham Video Electronics)
2. Better Now – Post Malone (Republic Records)
3. High Horse – Kacey Musgraves (Mercury Records)
4. Black Snow – Oneohtrick Point Never (Warp)
5. Como Me Quieres – Khruangbin (Night Time Stories ltd. / Dead Oceans)
Video of the Season
“This is America” Childish Gambino
Playlists
> 1001 and 1 Ways – This is Pop Music (and then some)
> Much – Rock exists, but mostly in Indie form.
> Classic – Oldies but goodies.
(Not the) Monarch of the Season
Prince Charles officially announced as Queen’s successor.
Fashionscape
The Pack is Back
The Fanny Pack is Back
The circle of cool strikes again, renewing fashion recently relegated as Dad wear is now finding its way on the high fashion catwalks. At Paris Fashion week the Pret-a-Porter fashion shows for Men’s Fashion had a resounding theme of street fashion, bright colour and many different versions of the Bum Bag or Belt Bag.
A Trend within Women’s Fashion House releases, glorified by Instagram models and Hip Hop Fashionistas.
Whether it be Chanel, Louis Vuitton (with Virgil Abloh at the helm), Acne Studios or Fendi they all took a stab at the bag and in some cases putting bags together with other bags.
Multi-bagging is the evolution of “how cool” the revolution of the Fanny Pack will strike!