The World
Globe / In many ways the world is on fire, in many ways the people are ready to fight
JWS Telescope discovers dimethyl sulfide, an indication of life, on K2-18 b, a new ‘Moon’ PT5 joins Earth’s orbit for two months.
Dark Oxygen, not created by photosynthesis, is found as a byproduct from non-biological polymetallic nodules on the Pacific Ocean floor.
CrowdStrike vulnerability requiring security patch, knocked out essential banking, transportation and infrastructure services.
The U.S. polls for President are neck and neck between Harris and Trump.
Europe / Right wing nationalism grows, yet citizens bring in Left leaders with Globalist Agendas.
(July) France snaps elections, to stave off right National Rally gains by bringing left and center parties in a coalition.
(July) Britain snaps elections, ousting Rishi Sunak and 14 years of conservativism by bringing in Labour’s new PM Keir Starmer.
(August) Riots in UK spark as English nationalists raise sentiments against immigration inflows, particularly from Muslim countries.
(August) Ukraine crosses border into Russia’s Kursk region officially taking an offensive land position in the war.
(September) President Erdogan of Türkiye releases statement that Russia needs to return Crimea to Ukraine.
North America / The U.S. Presidential race witnesses unprecedented attacks, literal and rhetorical.
(July) Attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Butler, PA, reveals drastic Secret Service failures under Kimberly Cheatle.
(July) Joe Biden stops his run for President as age and health catch up, while Democrats galvanize around the VP Kamala Harris.
(August) Sinaloa cartel leaders, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López, are detained in El Paso and sent to the U.S.
(September) Democrats highlight ‘Project 2025’ as an extremist blueprint for Trump’s 2nd Term, although Trump team declines having read it.
(September) Russia’s RT hired ‘Tenet Media’ and influencers to promote Russian messaging in North America.
Africa and the Middle East / Israel attacks, Iran resets its positions, and the rest of the world waits.
(July) Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian centrist values showcase a will of the people, while remaining loyal to Ayatollah Khamenei.
(July - September) Israel strikes Houthi’s ports, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, Hezbollah leaders Fuad Shukr, Ibrahim Akil, Hassan Nasrallah.
o Israel triggered explosives hidden in pagers and walkie talkies, 37 Hezbollah operatives killed, and 3,000 wounded.
(September) Ghana is on locked down due to crack down on illegal mining and the pollution is has caused within key waterways.
(September) Fighting in Sudan rages on, killing 12,000 and displacing 6.8M as the RSF and Sudanese army try to control Khartoum.
Asia / Financial liquidity tightens, and alliances are being renegotiated.
(July) China’s central bank unexpectedly cut the interest rate, and 40 rural banks hit by the slowdown are bought out by national banks.
(August) Bangladesh President Hasina resigns as students protest quotas on government jobs set aside for families of past freedom fighters.
Impact: The textile and fast fashion industry a loss in cheap labour, while India will need a mass migration of refugees.
(September) Sri Lanka elects new Leftist Marxist President, Dissanayake, to lead the country from the devastated past political turmoil.
South & Central America / Is on fire, and while turmoil surrounds politics
(August) Maduro is re-elected in Venezuela with questionable results, as protest and international backing support his competitor Gonzalez.
(September) Guyanese oil, with support of ExxonMobil, is ramping up to service European needs to replace dependency on Russia energy.
(September) Brazil Supreme Court upholds a ban on X/Twitter, due to claims the platform emboldened organized disinformation campaigns.
(September) As drought settles in Ecuador, Brazil and all throughout South America, fires and destruction look to become a new normal.
Forecast
A Tale of Two Economies
It is the worst of times; it is the best of times; and it all depends on your new feed.
(September 27th 2024, Toronto, Canada)
If you are living in North America, you may be focused on how bad inflationary pressures have gotten since 2021. Or you may have benefited from a post-COVID rebound in a growing economy that surged in 2023. Compared to the rest of the world, America is the envy of many but depending on your politics you may be surprised by that.
As a key part of the current election, the economy is a key consideration for voters. So, of the two Presidential administrations – whose performed better Trump/Pence or Biden/Harris?
The Trump Administration started with a strong economy and low unemployment but ended in the midst of a pandemic. The Biden Administration started in a lockdown and with a crippled global supply chain that they maneuvered through for 2 years. This makes it difficult to compare the 4-year terms, but instead they can be compared in numbers both within and out of the impact of the pandemic.
With that consideration how do the two economies stack up, throughout their complicated 4 years of reign.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)^
U.S. Income and Production within Domestic Borders
Trump saw 4.1% annual growth adding $3.2T, then staved off deep pandemic recession with spending to recover in Q3 2020. Biden’s pandemic saw immense growth at 7.8% adding $5.0T and has steadied annual growth at 3.8%.
However, the Real GDP (tracking inflation-adjust values) Trump’s first 3 years saw 2.7%, whereas Biden saw 3.5% growth.
Gross National Product (GNP)^
U.S. Income & Production Globally
Although GNP fell out of favour in the 1990’s, as it includes U.S. product outside domestic border. The GNP saw the same trends as the GDP where Trump built on Obama’s 3.9% annual growth to 4.1%. Even considering the Pandemic both administrations had strong economies where Trump added $4.1T to GNP, and Biden added an additional $5.9T.
Conclusion: Both economies saw strong returns, despite the drag set by the pandemic, however Trump’s economy was leveling out in Q42019 whereas Biden’s economy saw greater Real GDP growth and has set a foundation to continue at this pace. (Favour Biden)
The Fed expects that prices will rise 2% in a healthy economy, but excessive fluctuations reveal a volatile market and high indexes reveal inflationary pressures. Trump’s economy saw 6.2% Inflation in first 42 months, whereas Biden, and our pocketbooks, saw a 19.2% increase in the first 42 months, although has level out to 3% post-pandemic.
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)^
Tracks personal spend in key market segments
Personal income activity reveals wage and savings growth across goods and service expenses. When tracking inflation, the Fed relies on PCE as it covers a range of spending, reflecting true consumer confidence. The Price Index in 2024 only shows soft growth that leaves worry about a future recession.
Conclusion: Many economists have been referencing the ‘Vibe’ of Americans, as a marker for economic success. Because although macroeconomics are trending well, the public are feeling the pressure from higher market prices. Whereas Biden’s economy only saw wages match inflation, people remember a time when Trump’s economy saw greater purchasing power as wages surpassed inflation. (Favour Trump)
Federal Funds Effect Rate (FFER)~ also known as Interest Rate
The base borrowing rate for banks as set by Central Banks like the Federal Reserve.
Although the Interest Rates are set by the non-partisan board at the Fed, the rates are set based on the performance of the current economy. When there is an increase in monetary supply (e.g. printing money) that occurs, or a stark increase in demand compared to supply, then interest rates are risen to cool costs and prevent hyperinflation. In 2022, the Fed saw both factors impact excessive inflation and drew the fed to raise rates 11 times from 0.25% to 5.5% within 16 months.
Conclusion: Many can argue the multitude of factors resulting in higher interest rates, and causes of inflation drawn from the pandemic, the monetary stimulus responses, and supply chain issues. However, Trump administration did allow for a rise in interest rates to combat the pandemic, the Biden administration did wear the pain of excessive rates which allowed for a soft-landing post pandemic. (Favour Trump)
Incurred Debt
The fiscal amount added to U.S. Deficit
In 2018, Trump enacted the ‘Tax Cuts and Job Act’ cuts individual taxes by 2-4% and tiered corporate taxes from 15-39% spread to 21%. The goal is to stimulate economic growth through corporate stimulus in innovation, the result lost government revenues growing the deficit 4.8T. During the pandemic stimulus packages for business and the public rose the deficit another 3.6T. During the Biden administration, the spending continued during the pandemic with 2.1T, and infrastructure spending continued post-pandemic adding an additional 2.2T.
Conclusion: Trump’s administration rose the deficit 39%, leaving questions if trickle-down economics simply resulted in corporate stock buybacks and consolidated wealth at the top. Biden continued to grow the deficit 25%, where some may argue the results appear in manufacturing growth and infrastructure developments. (Favour Biden)
Summary
Throughout 2024, both political parties accused each other of punching up the numbers and both sides relied on Stock Market returns, Employment figures, Unemployment Claims, Average Earnings per Capita, and various important economic factors to support their claims. The uniqueness of 2020 to 2024 doesn’t allow for an easy telling of the story via traditional economics.
Where Trump’s economy was remembered as positive but punctuated with a question mark tied to the pandemic, Biden’s economy is graded on the impacts of the pandemic and lauded for managing what appears like a soft landing that avoided a recession.
· Trump’s economy is narrowly defined by tax cuts and government spending, with tariffs bringing in funds.
· Biden’s economy is boiled down to social program and infrastructure spending, with renewed consumer confidence in pandemic recovery.
It is clear and concerning both Administration’s will continue to spend against the deficit, increasing borrowing costs and interest rates at a whole. These poor practices will catch up with America in due time.
It is also clear why there is a partisan divide in viewing the economic philosophies of each administration.
Trump will find backing by corporate interest and billionaires looking to propel trickle-down economics.
Biden, now Harris, will find backing by small business and social program advocates looking to re-establish a thriving middle class.
Graphs and Charts
Gross National Product (GDP)^ – U.S. Income & Production
Gross National Product (GNP)^ – U.S. Income & Production Globally
Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Indicating Price
Personal Consumption Expenditure Price (PCE)^ - Tracking Personal Spend
Federal Funds Effective Rate (FFER)~ – Interest Rates
Incurred Deficit+
^ U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
* Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
# U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
~ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US)
+ U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal Service
Business
Market conditions are good, but Investors are skittish
What does that have to do with the price of tea….
Carry Trade covering struck the global markets this summer in a negative way. As the Japanese economy saw an uptick with a strong 12-month performance, the central bank rose the interest rates for the first time in 16 years. The investor class who had borrow Yen, bought Japanese bonds and borrowed against them and investing in foreign markets. A great strategy until borrowing rates rise.
Gold – rose 13% this quarter, the best in 4 years, due instability in the Middle East and cautious investors in the West.
Oil – prices continue to remain low around $70/barrel, as limited demand outweighs concerns in Middle East supply.
Crypto – If the retail market is an indicator of market adoption, then Crypto is sluggish will limited activity this quarter.
The Fed cuts the Interest Rate by 50 basis points.
To address looming concerns of economic slowdowns, and a slow reaction from the central bank – they have course corrected this September. The Fed cut 0.50 percentage points to 4.83% and credit cards and mortgage rates have followed suit. Although investor reactions have behaved cautious, the 10-year Treasury yield often used to finance auto and corporate loans even increased before settling around 3.75%. The market is looking for a continued downward trend in November and December, to truly garner the Fed’s full sentiment.
Late-Stage Capitalists Search for Unicorns
The Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Amazon Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) now account for a quarter of the S&P market cap. yet investor sentiment wanes as AI products have yet to come to market. However, small businesses with basic fundamentals is attracting investor dollars, like Longboard Pharmaceuticals, Perimeter solutions, and Gannett. The recent Great Rotation drew eyes to the Russell Indexes, but this interest may fade just as fast.
Politics & Religion
4 years on, since being locked down, global tourism grows to historic heights.
(July 23rd 2024, Toronto, Canada)
In the first quarter of 2024, 285M international travelers took to the road and are on track to join the highest set in all recorded history. On its high points, tourism brings with it cultural exchange and capital opportunity, but due to its low points many popular cities are fighting back against overtourism and its impacts on their culture.
Places like Amsterdam, Bali, and Machu Picchu are battling their prominence as a place to see vs. those who actually come to see them. And they are not alone, Barcelona and Venice have applied an aggressive tourist tax to desaude the uncomitted and build a fund to address the growing impact of global visitors.
What’s changed in many years is the traveller themselves, less enamoured about a flight to somewhere different and more driven about taking pictures in a place where they want the same comforts as home. Tourist don’t travel to learn and grow, but instead to be accommodated too.
Although that’s not true across the board, it is true on the numbers as popular cities begin to demand more from tourists in support of the local community. So if you are thinking of travelling through these months, and for years to come, here are some suggestions of being a good visitor.
Good Tourist Etiquette
A Good Guest – When staying at someone’s home, treat your host with the extravagances equal to the cost of a hotel.
Take Out what you Packed In – At minimum, do not leave garbage behind, and if you can clean up after others.
Buy Local – If there are opportunities to buy directly from the community, do it.
Respect Yourself – By representing your values and those of your community back home.
Poor Tourist Etiquette
Use Language – Don’t expect locals to speak your language.
Comparisons to Home – You are not at home, remember that’s why you left, the food will taste different.
Wild Parties – Inhibitions will be unleashed, but if you wouldn’t do it at your parents house, don’t do it in a strange land.
Unprepared – Lack of research can leave you without proper attire, prepared for cultural norms, and tax local resource for help.
From a political lens, Anti-Globalist’s on the right may point to a drive by the World Economic Forum to place environmental taxes on airline and car transport for most, limiting travel only for the global elites. The highlight is that the goal is to lock us down similar to 2020, and build 15-minute cities keeping citizens trapped and trackable.
Anti-globalist’s on the left, like Helena Norberg-Hodge promote her ideas of Localization in ‘The Economics of Happiness’, by building regional markets with a goal to add a ‘solution-multiplier’ benefiting the community, the environment and food systems. In turn she has called out Globalization for developing unnatural supply chains, demanding mass energy to transport goods, and stiffling livable wages in all markets.
In the world of tourism, if we look at Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula, there are plans to build a $20B train ‘El Tren Maya’ to link Tulum to the Mexican Riveria to Cancun in order to support the tourist industry but at the enivroment destruction of underground Cenotes and perputating a class of Mexican workers who are addicted to tourist dollars.
Progress is important, but not at the sacrifice of integrity and values.
Tattooscape
Cheap Tattoo’s aren’t Rad and Rad Tattoo’s aren’t Cheap!
(August 12, 2024 - Montreal, Canada )
Tattoos are primal, they connect our bodies with our grand ideas.
September 1991, bordering Italy-Austria, the body of Ötzi the Tyrolean Iceman is found. Dating back to 3,250 B.C.E., Ötzi is covered with 61 tattoos all over his body. The theories project that the tattoos were part of cultural and therapeutic practices, almost like doctors’ notes.
Tattoos are nautical, a record of ports traveled and places once seen.
Through time sailors return home, so do their adorned bodies. Whether a Māori tribe, or young American fighting a World War. Their face, their arms, their bodies wear the scars and markings of their time experienced.
Tattoos are low art, they are an act of rebellion
In the 20th century motorcyclists, chefs, and misfits skirt the norms with attitude, they solidify their stations in life with a middle finger to social norms and ‘H.A.T.E’ and ‘L.O.V.E.’ imprisoned on their closed fists.
Tattoos are decorative, they connect with impulsive ideas.
Today, one may find themself looking at a wall of designs to select from, inhibitions low, and you point and chose. Or they may have flown to the Philippines, travel to the Buscalan Village to seek out the Centurian Apo Whang-Od to design your body within 20 minutes. The moment may be fleeting, but the mark lasts a lifetime.
Wherever you find yourself in these times, considering a Tattoo or a reason for one, here are some artists of our time.
Best Tattoo Artist of the 20’s
Patch Tattoos – Eduardo Lozano Barreto ‘Duda’ (dudalozanotattoo) – Barcelona, Spain
Embossed – Daniel Gulliver ‘Gully’ (gullytattoo) – Brighton, UK
Paper Cut Style – Zoonmo (Zoonmo_) Seoul, South Korea
Nordic – Isar Peter Oakmund (Isar.Oakmund) Whitley Bay, UK
Rad - Jesse Graham (jessegerms) – Ottawa, Canada
